Unlike in the midterm election of 2014, when Republicans made decisive gains, this time around they will be competing in a presidential election year, when turnout among core elements of the Democratic base, especially minority and young voters, will be higher. That means that a large crop of first-term Republicans who won their seats in 2014 now have to defend their seats for the first time–usually the toughest re-election assignment–in a more difficult environment.
Yet almost no political pro thinks the Republican House majority is in danger in 2016. The highly respected Cook Political Report calls it “unrealistic” to think Democrats can win enough seats to wrest back control of the House. Indeed, the prospect of a change of control is so remote that House races figure to become the forgotten contests in a cycle with a wide-open fight for the White House and a pitched battle for control of the Senate
Likely: These seats are not considered competitive at this point, but have the potential to become engaged.
Lean: These are considered competitive races, but one party has an advantage.
Toss-Up: These are the most competitive; either party has a good chance of winning.
Solid Seats: 210 Rep, 169 Dem
Likely/Lean Seats: 28 Rep, 16 Dem
Toss Up or Worse: 9 Rep, 3 Dem