by Alex Gonzalez
The New UT/Texas Tribune Poll shows Bernie Sanders leading in Texas with 24% – a increase of 12% from October – followed by Joe Biden with 22%, Elizabeth Warren with 15%. Mike Bloomberg with 10% and Pete Buttigieg with 7%.
The Texas Tribune poll is one of the most accurate polls in Texas. And there no reason why Texas Democrats think a self-proclaimed “socialist” can turn Texas blue. But, the fact is Sanders has a following, even in conservative state like Texas.
However, how accurate the poll in predicting who will win? The same UT/Texas Tribune Poll of February 2016 showed that Sanders received 44% of support from Texas Democrats in his presidential bid against Hillary Clinton who got 54%.
What was the actual outcome of primary in Texas?
Clinton got 65% compared to Sander who received only 33%. So the the poll was off by 10 points. What was a 10 points gap between Clinton and Sanders in the poll actually turnout to be 32 points gap when the votes were cast.
In the same poll in the Republain primary in Texas we can see that Ted Cruz got 37% of support from Texas Republicans while Trump got only 29%. When the votes were cast, however, Cruz got 44% and Trump got 27%. The poll was closer in the Republican primary than in the Democrat contest.
Because the Texas Tribune normally releases the cross-tabs 4-5 days later, we can’t see the demographic break-down. But, it’s fair to assume that the poll is not an indication of where the votes will be on March 3. And while there may be some support among Texas Democrats for Sanders, it does not translate into actual votes.
Alex Gonzalez is a political Analyst, Founder of Latino Public Policy Foundation (LPPF), and Political Director for Latinos Ready To Vote. Comments to firstname.lastname@example.org or @AlexGonzTXCA