There is a new poll by the Liberal Public Policy Polling (PPP), that suggests that in Texas, Hillary Clinton could win the state in 2016. The Battleground Texas Democrat Strategy, the new Democrat Machine that was created to help turn Texas blue, along with the questionable polls by Latino Decision, makes it seem like there is a real assault on the Texas GOP. This time around, the Republicans better listen. Demographic changes can be a destiny for blue. And it is not to say that Liberals are delusional when they presume that Texas can become blue, they have done in it in the past by running Southern Democrats.
According to the PPP poll:
50% of Texas voters have a favorable opinion of Clinton to 43% with a negative one. She’s universally well liked by Democrats (91/5) and a majority of independents view her positively as well (52/41). She holds narrow leads in hypothetical match ups with Marco Rubio (46/45) and Chris Christie (45/43) and a wider one in a contest against Rick Perry (50/42).
Similarly, The Democratic National Committee recently launched a strategy named Battleground Texas, with the chief objective of turning Texas into a prime electoral battleground in the next two elections. The main goal of the strategy is to engage more Latino voters to offset the 10 point gap in general elections where Republican in the state get (55-45). According to Politico, blue Texas plan:
“Over the next several years, Battleground Texas will focus on expanding the electorate by registering more voters — and as importantly, by mobilizing Texans who are already registered voters but who have not been engaged in the democratic process.
In addition, the Liberal pollsters Latino Decision, in partnership with another Liberal Group America’s Voices, have come up with dubious statistics showing how in Texas only 25 % of Latinos voted Republican. I say questionable because Texas was the only state were no exit polls were taken, yet Latin Decision claim that only 23% of Latinos voted for Mitt Romney when the actual exit polls show Romney at 27%. And, more significantly for Texas, a state where 38-40 of Latinos on average vote Republican, Latino Decision claim that only 29% of Latinos voted Republicans last November.
Furthermore, the methodology typically used by Latino Decision is based on phone surveys where they do not truly reflect actual turnout in Texas. For example, in their research projection for the 2012 election, between November2-5, Latino Decision claims to have called 5,200 potential Latino voters. In other words, the research has to do more with, what responders on the phone said but is inconsistent on what they did on November 6th. Moreover, according to Pew Hispanic,in Colorado all exit polls show the margin of victory between Obama and Romney among Latinos was 75-23, but Latino Decision claims is was 87-10. Also in Nevada, according to the Pew Hispanic, the margin between for Obama and Romney among Latino voters was 70-25, but Latino Decision has a margin of 80-17. Consequently, there is no evidence as to how Latinos voted in Texas, nor that Latinos in Texas voted only 29 %.
Texas is very Republican state and there is not actual data, yet, proving that Latinos voted in a certain way. So clearly the polling by Latino Decision says very little on how many Latinos voted Republican, and the polling by the PPP only suggest that Hillary is very favorable in a hypothetical match against Marco Rubio or Jeb Bush. Yet this hypothetical approach with questionable data works only as an encouragement for potential voters and wealthy Democrat donors who are willing to pour money into Texas in hopes of turning the state blue since Women are the biggest group of voters nationally.
But the most serious of all the Liberals treats is the so-called Battleground Texas because its main objective is to focus on expanding the electorate by registering more voters, especially Latino voters.
For example, I made this chart after looking at Looking at the Texas Secretary of State official Registration over the last 15 years. Here we can see that there are no more “Anglo” voters left in Texas. As a result, the fact is the there is no more “Anglo” growth for the GOP. From 2000 to 2012, the number of 13,000,000 votes has remained the same while the number of unregistered Voting age populating has grown from 14.4 million to 18.2 million by 2012.
Moreover, in Texas, last year, there are an estimated 4 million Latino voters. Also, in Texas with about 250,000 young Latino turning 18 each year; hence, we can presume that in Texas by 2014, there will be about 4.7 million of these potential voters, and by 2016, these number could be between 5.0 and 5.5—when you add the exponential growth From these 4.2 million of Latino eligible to vote only about today.
Therefore, the questionable numbesr by Latino Decision can be easily debunk with an actual count of the Latino Turnout in Texas—and I am working really hard to get it done—since in Texas Latinos are about 40% of the Latino and who vote Republican. But until we have the actual data, Republicans are losing the perception battle since the lack of data has created a vacuum of information where only Liberal groups and pollsters are promoting questionable data.
The PPP polls are important because of the women appeal—a conservative Democrats like Ann Richardson. Moreover, Democrats have been in Republican states when they select a southern democrat as the presidential candidate — Bill Clinton and Jimmy Carter, for example. In 1996, Bob dole won Texas by only 250,000 votes; he also won 6 southern states, and AZ, NM, and NV.
However, the most danger for Republicans in Texas will come for the exponential growth of young Latino voters and the stagnant Republican voter registrations. But this is also a new opportunity for Republicans to finally develop a comprehensive outreach program aimed getting some new Latino voters. In other words, there is way to stop the democrat threat of turning Texas blue. Realistically, there has to be a real plan from Republicans to invite Latinos not only to vote, but into the party on a long term basis. This is the only way to stop the blue wave among Latinos in Texas.Alex Gonzalez is a political Analyst and Political Director for Latinos Ready To Vote! He received a Bachelors Degree and a Masters’ Degree, with emphasis in American politics, from San Francisco State University. comments to firstname.lastname@example.org