By Alex Gonzalez
How many jobs will be created with the new law that is about to be rolled out by President Obama via his “Presidential” executive order, how it will affect our economy? In Texas alone it could create up to 120,000 new jobs in the next 10 years, while these “new” workers could generate about $21 billion to contribute to the National Deficit.
According to conservative The American Action Network (AAN), under The Senate Bill S.744, 221,629 jobs could be created by this “advance parole” in Texas alone. In August 2013, AAN did a thorough analysis, by state and by district, that tells how many jobs an Immigration Reform would create in their congressional districts over the next ten years. Overall, it amounts to approximately 6 million jobs nationwide and to 221,621 in Texas.
Statewide, jobs that could be created is reflected from 2014 to 2023 through temporary worker visas and legalization of undocumented workers under the Senate’s immigration bill, the Border Security, Economic Opportunity, and Immigration Modernization Act of 2013. This number was calculated using data from the Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) study “Key Components of Immigration Reform”. Read Texas report here.
President Obama is supposed to sign an executive plan that would give temporary protection and renewable work permits to about 6-7 million of undocumented workers, which is roughly about 60-65 percent of the 11 million of undocumented workers in the country.
According to the only Study by the Texas Comptroller of Publican Accounts, The Pew Hispanic Center estimates that between 1.4 million and 1.6 million undocumented immigrants residing in Texas in March 2005. To achieve a conservative estimate, this analysis relies on the lower boundary of this range.
Similar numbers by Pew Hispanic in 2008, still kept the numbers about 1.4 to 1.6 million in Texas.
In addition, the CBO analysis of Senate Amendment 1183 to S. 744, “border surge,” Immigration Modernization Act estimated that enacting the committee-approved version of S. 744 would have effects on direct spending and revenues that would reduce budget deficits by $197 billion over the 2014-2023 period. And this economic benefit is after taking into consideration the proposed amendment that would appropriate $46.3 billion for expenses related to the security of the southern U.S. border and initial administrative costs.
The Senate Bill S.744 was supposed to legalize 11 million, which would have created 221,629 new jobs in Texas. As a result, if Obama legalize only 6-7 million of undocumented workers, or about 60 percent of the total 11 million, about 120,000 new jobs in the state(see chart for jobs in Texas by industries where jobs will be created).
The initial reports say the criteria will be based on number of years in country and family ties to U.S. Citizens. According to Pew Hispanic, more that 60 of those 11 million have been in country for more that 10 years. And about 4-5 million live in mix marriages–married to U.S citizens or with citizen children.
Furthermore, Texas is home to about 1.6 million out of the 11 million, or about 16 percent of the total undocumented population in the nation; and if the CBO projection is correct, that the Senate Immigration Bill would reduce the budget deficit by $197, this new executive law could generate about $30 billion in Texas alone since about 1.1 million of undocumented workers in Texas could be legalized.
The top 5 sectors that will gain these new jobs will be construction, healthcare, retail, accommodation and food services, and administrative services.
The study by the Texas Comptroller estimates the implicit assumption is 1.6 million undocumented immigrants have employment and spending patterns consistent with Hispanics in Texas with similar age and gender profiles. What is means is that Hispanic residents that obtain “legal status” in Texas through this “executive” action now could get a social security, driver license, and thereby, buys houses, cars, and invest if private sector.
Alex Gonzalez is a political Analyst and Political Director for Latinos Ready To Vote! comments to vote@latinosreadytovote.com
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