A new comprehensive poll by Texas Luceum shows that Texans have many opinions on many issues and that the future may hold tough times for Ted Cruz; Donald Trump is now leading the Texas GOP presidential race.
In June, Texas Tribune poll showed Ted Cruz at 20% and it also indicated that Ted Cruz’s un- favorability had increased from a previous pool in February in Texas. This chart shows Trump leading in Texas at 21% followed by Cruz with 16% – Marco Rubio is at 5%.
These are bad news for Cruz. Even if Ted Cruz is very favorable among Tea Party primary voters in Texas, support from these groups will not translate into statewide gains since he will get only a proportion of 155 Texas primary delegates of the of the 36 congressional districts in the primary set for march 1st. The rest will have to be shared among the other two top contenders in on March 1st.
This distribution of Texas primary delegates was set up to force many national GOP candidates to pay attention to Texas, and they succeeded. But it has also diffused some tea party support for Ted Cruz since very few congressional districts – districts in Tarrant and Denton counties – are solid Tea Party areas. Thus, unless Trump and Carson drop before March 1st, Cruz will have tough time getting meaningful support from his home from tea party groups. Moreover, Ted Cruz has polled very low in every national poll at 6% and the most recent WSJ poll shows Cruz at only 5%.
Immigration was named the most important issue by Texans, according to the poll. But immigration means different things for different groups. For example, when the question was asked about the recent approval by the Texas Legislature to spend $800 million on border security operations, 62% supported this increased spending by the legislature. Republicans were overwhelmingly in favor of the measure (84%) while Democrats were more mixed, with 45% expressing support and 48% expressing opposition. And while Anglo Texans were the most likely to support this increase in funding (71%), 50% of Hispanic respondents also expressed support.
So 50% of Hispanics supported spending at the border, but 75% of Hispanics also supported stopping “the deportation of any undocumented immigrant youth who attends college or serves in the military and provides them with a legal work permit;” 0nly 58 of “Anglos” supported those views. What this shows is that “Anglos” and Hispanics have a different perception about spending at the border and immigration, especially among the 84% of Republicans who overwhelmingly support spending at the border and opposed any type of legal status for undocumented workers.
And this is not the first poll that showing Hispanics having different views on immigration.
On terms of “race;” the polls shows a nice ethnic/racial pool similar to the state demographic shift. 47% of respondents were “White/Anglo-Saxon,”11% African American 11%, and 36% were Hispanic. This poll is more accurate than an earlier poll from WSJ/Telemundo this week showing only 100 Hispanic respondents. But the national WSJ poll does show that Hispanic favorability for Jeb Bush is increasing while Hispanics still hold “very negative” or “somewhat negative” views of Donald Trump.
Alex Gonzalez is a political Analyst and Political Director for Latinos Ready To Vote. comments: firstname.lastname@example.org or @