The new USC/LATimes poll has very gloomy predictions for Republicans in California for the election in Novembers if either Ted Cruz or Donald Trump become the GOP nominee, especially among Latino voters.
Of a total 1503 respondents in the poll, 361 were “likely” Latino voters.
You can read the poll here, or from LATimes to read that Donalds Trump is still leading the GOP primary; the poll shows the race between Trump and Cruz is nearly tied, with Trump at 36% versus Cruz at 35%…but a quarter of California Republican voters polled said they would refuse to vote for Trump in November if he is the party’s nominee. For me, is more about where Latinos stand.
These chart below shows the views of 361 “likely” Latino voters.
The first “Trump effect” among Latino voters is his favorability. He has only 17% of favorability among Latinos and the combined “very unfavorable” and unfavorable is 74% among Latinos. Very few people will challenge the math showing these numbers are directly related to his incendiary remarks about Mexican immigrants and the absurdity of the “wall” idea that has become a manifestation of anti-Mexican fervor in his rallies. But Ted Cruz is not far from Trump in unfavrability among Latinos in the state. Conversely, Clinton has a 70% favorability among Latinos while Sanders has 65%.
The poll also shows that in a Trump – Clinton race, Clinton wins by 78% and Trump gets only 13% among Latino voters.
The chart below shows that in Clinton – Cruz race, Clinton wins with 74% and Cruz gets only 20% among Latino voters. Latinos are not coming to Cruz because in many way they see him as anti-Latino or anti-immigrant, or opportunistic tea party politicians who has been using anti-immigration to stir the “old” white tea party base for the past three years.
On the Issue of Immigrating and the “wall,” for Latinos in California this has become personal and cultural. Overall, almost 80% of Latinos strongly oppose Trump’s immigration views and 74% oppose building a wall with Mexico. Moreover, on the issue of path to citizenship for those here illegally, 79% of Latinos says that folks here illegally should be allowed to apply for citizenship.
California was home to the anti-immigrant anti-Mexico movement of the 1990s and Latino voters see this issue as cultural attacks that extend not only against immigrant but against the rise of all Latinos in the state. That is why regardless of party affiliation – Republican or Democrat – about 80% of Latinos in the state consistently support a path to citizenship and oppose any unnecessary Trump or Cruz plans to build walls.
I am not sure if the state Republican Party has any strategy to counter the Trump-Cruz effect, but it is clear that Latino strongly reject any harsh platform of Cruz and Trump and their agendas is driving Latinos farther away from what once was the party of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush.
As a result, the new poll show that Trump not only will cause that 25% of Republicans don’t vote in Novembers, but the he will lose with big gap among Latino votes.
Alex Gonzalez is a political Analyst and Political Director for Latinos Ready To Vote. Comments to firstname.lastname@example.org or @