State by State Turnout Shows Hope for Republicans in Hispanic States

By Alex Gonzalez 

Thought most of the media has focused on the Electoral landslide by Obama winning 8 of the10 swing states; state-by-state- turnout also shows that in Hispanic swing states Republican did much better than four years ago. Moreover, in those same states, Democrats saw  lower turnout than 4 years ago.  However, the Republicans did not have enough voters to overcome the advantage of  Democrat voters, and possibly the new Latino registered voters. While the share of the Latino vote in a state-by-state levels, the raw data shows  an increase of approximately 2.5 new Latinos voters nationwide.  It will be about 2 months before we can see the actually share of the Latino vote state by state and the Registered vs. actual voters.

Also, there some conflicting number emerging from data collected from exit polls showing Republican at 27% Latino.  But there are also other Liberal polling organizations like Latino Decision already suggesting that the Latino vote in some states for Republicans was at about 20%.


In Colorado, Obama received 50,000 more votes than he did in 2008. However, there was also a similar increase of 50,000 votes in Republican who voted for Mitt Romney. As a result, both parties saw an increase in voter turnout, yet Democrats managed to keep the same advantage of 85,000 votes. At the Congressional level see (map below), Democrats won only 2 Districts.    

Colorado                                                                                                                                              2012 results        Votes % won                                                                                                            Barack Obama    1,238,490 51.2%                                                                                                     Mitt Romney      1,125,391 46.5                                                                                                         Gary Johnson      32,262 1.3                                                                                                                Others                  23,555 1.0

Results: 2008 |    Votes % won                                                                                                           Barack Obama    1,288,576 53.7%                                                                                                      John McCain       1,073,589 44.7                                                                                                         Others                  39,196 1.6


In Nevada, there were 5,000 less votes for Obama in 2012 from 2008. However, there was an increase of 50,000 Republican voters in 2012 from 2008. Yet there was not enough Republican votes to overcome the 120,000 Democrat advantage votes.  At the Congressional House level, the state is evenly split with 2 seats for each party.  But Congressional seats do not mirror the presidential map county-by-county.

Nevada                                                                                                                                                                               2012 results       Votes % won                                                                                                             Barack Obama   528,801 52.3%                                                                                                         Mitt Romney      462,422 45.7                                                                                                            Gary Johnson     10,895 1.1                                                                                              Others                 8,987 0.9

Results: 2008 |    Votes % won                                                                                                           Barack Obama    533,736 55.2%                                                                                                        John McCain       412,827 42.7                                                                                                            Others                 21,285 2.2


In New Mexico, Obama also received about 63,000 fewer votes than he did in 2008.  But, Republicans also saw a decrease if turnout by 15,000 votes from 2008. At the House level, the state remains split with the southern part of the state voting Republican and then northern part, and Alburberqueque, voting Democrat.


New Mexico                                                                                                                                        2012 results         Votes % won                                                                                                           Barack Obama     408,312 52.9%                                                                                                       Mitt Romney        331,915 43.0                                                                                                          Gary Johnson       27,337 3.5                                                                                                              Others                   4,765 0.6

Results: 2008 |     Votes % won                                                                                                         Barack Obama     472,422 56.9%                                                                                                       John McCain       346,832 41.8                                                                                                          Others                  10,904 1.3


In Arizona, Republicans also got fewer votes.   There was a decrease of 92,000 votes among Republicans in the state compare to 2008. However, among democrats, there was also decrease of 191,000 votes from 2008.  At the House Congressional level, the ester part of the state has become democrat while western Arizona remains safe for Republican. But it is very different from the presidential map by county.

Arizona                                                                                                                                                                        2012 results         Votes % won                                                                                                           Mitt Romney       1,038,907 54.3%                                                                                                    Barack Obama     841,607 44.0                                                                                                          Gary Johnson      25,166 1.3                                                                                                                Others                  6,262 0.3

Results: 2008 |        Votes % won                                                                                                       John McCain          1,230,111 53.7%                                                                                                   Barack Obama        1,034,707 45.1                                                                                                     Others


In Texas, Republican got 1.1 million more voters than 2008—higher voter turnout. But, democrats also increased their voter turnout 221,000 votes from 2008. It is worth noting that there has been decrease in voter Registration in Texas from 13,575,000 million in 2008 to 13, 065,000million in 2012. Therefore, there was an increase in voter turnout in the state even though there fewer registered voter.  At the Congressional level, the south Texas corridor went entirely democrat, but within the presidential county-by-county Republicans show some victories as well ( see map bellow).

Texas                                                                                                                                                                                   2012 results        Votes % won                                                                                                            Mitt Romney      4,555,799 57.2%                                                                                                      Barack Obama    3,294,440 41.4                                                                                                        Gary Johnson      88,110 1.1                                                                                                                Others                 24,450 0.3

Results: 2008 |     Votes % won                                                                                                          John McCain       4,479,328 55.6%                                                                                                    Barack Obama    3,528,633 43.8                                                                                                        Others                 56,116 0.7


In California, Democrats saw their voting base decreased by 2. 3 million voters.  However, Republicans also saw a significant decrease in their turnout by 1.1 million votes.  California is among states in which Congressional map mirrors the presidential map with Republicans dominating the rural eastern areas while Democrats keeping the coastal areas.

California                                                                                                                                            2012 results          Votes % won                                                                                                         Barack Obama     5,967,520 59.1%                                                                                                    Mitt Romney        3,890,967 38.5                                                                                                       Gary Johnson       106,520 1.1                                                                                                            Others                   131,535 1.3

Results: 2008 |     Votes % won                                                                                                          Barack Obama      8,274,473 61.1%                                                                                                    John McCain        5,011,781 37.                                                                                                          Others                   255,410 1.9


Florida also saw a decrease in Republican turnout by 46,000 voters from 2008.  Conversely, Florida democrats saw an increase of 117,000 voters from 2008.  Also, Florida Congressional seats mirror the presidential map with Democrats keeping the south Florida, Miami-Dade. With 3 congressional seats and winning 1 seat.  

Florida                                                                                                                                                    2012 results          Votes % won                                                                                                          Barack Obama      4,236,032 50.0%                                                                                                  Mitt Romney        4,162,174 49.1                                                                                                        Others                  72,852 0.9

Results: 2008 |     Votes % won                                                                                                          Barack Obama     4,282,074 51.0%                                                                                                    John McCain       4,045,624 48.2                                                                                                        Others                  62,655 0.7

The House: Some House Congressional Districts do not mirror the counties that vote for Obama. For example, in South Texas, while some counties voted for Romney, the entire south Texas from Brownsville to El Paso went to Democrats.

Note: Congressional seat 2 in the south eastern corner of Arizona has been called for Democrat Ron Barber. 

Alex Gonzalez  is a political Analyst and Political Director  for Latinos Ready To Vote.  He received a Bachelor Degrees in and a Masters’ Degrees, with emphasis in American politics  from San Fransisco State University.
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