The Latino population may decide which way Arizona & Nevada swing this November. The latest Univsion poll shows that Clinton is well position to get more than 60% of the Latino vote nationally and in battleground states like Nevada, Florida, Arizona and Colorado.
In California, turnout among Latinos eligible to vote in 2012 was 48% where in Texas was only 38%. Thus, In Texas and California the Latino vote or “Trump Effect” will be felt more in the states’ legislatures and Congressional races. Both California and Texas are home to the largest blocs of Latino voters, but neither Texas and California are battleground states. And in battleground states turnout among Latino voters is higher, as showed in charts below – in battleground states.
in Arizona, Univisin poll has Trump at only 18% of support from Latinos and in 2012, Mitt Romney got only 25%. Four poll in AZ have showed that, though Sen. McCain has a commanding lead in his re-election race, in the presidential race, polls have tied.
In Florida, this years there were nearly 1.8 million registered Hispanic voters as of February, comprising about 15% of the electorate, compared to 1.47 million, making up 13% of the electorate, four years earlier when it was 1.6 million.
Many have underlined the increase of voter registration in swing state like CO, NV, and now AZ, and observing that these increases have occurred more in counties with big Latino population. In Colorado and Florida are states that Obama won in 2008-12 with a 5% and lower margins. This make the Latino vote even more influential in these states since the Latino share of registered voter has increased between 13% and 15% since 2012.
Below is chart of how Latinos voter in every state and nationally. In three states – AZ, NV, and CO, the average Latino voter for Republicans was 24%. The most recent polls have showed Trump getting only between 15% to 22% with Latinos nationally. In battleground states, if trump was to get a 20%, or lower, the Latino vote can easily sway the states’ Electoral Votes.
The Pew Hispanic argues that of the 27.5 million of Latinos eligible to vote, almost half (44%) of them are millennials. Among the most important issue, the Pew report shows that 78% “Hispanic voters say education will be very important to their vote for president. That compares with 66% of all registered voters. Hispanics also are more likely than all voters to rate the treatment of gay, lesbian and transgender adults (50% vs. 40%), immigration (79% vs. 70%) and health care (82% vs. 74%) as very important.”
This chart show the latest polls among all voters in battleground states
Alex Gonzalez is a political Analyst and Political Director for Latinos Ready To Vote. Comments to firstname.lastname@example.org or @