… Our estimates find that, taken together, premiums for older adults could increase by as much as $3,600 for a 55-year old earning $25,000 a year, $7,000 for a 64-year old earning $25,000 a year and up to $8,400 for a 64-year old earning $15,000 a year.
Republican leaders have made great pains to argue that the CBO’s estimate of the millions who will lose insurance is faulty, or even that it’s a necessary side effect of returning to a more free-market approach to health care. But the GOP’s counter-argument is predicated on the idea that its alternative would at least allow people access to coverage. Paying such a substantial portion of one’s income on health insurance doesn’t meet that goal — if, in fact, the CBO’s estimate is anywhere close to accurate.
It also affects a group of voters who are integral to the Trump Coalition. Less-formally educated and lower-income white Americans were the backbone of the electoral shift that allowed President Trump to be elected, and he has promised them the world: Coverage that is even more affordable than the Affordable Care Act and “insurance for everybody.”
On top of all that, older people are much more likely to vote than younger people, especially in a midterm election like 2018. So basically, Trump’s win was built on older, poorer people, for whom this law appears to drive up premiums and drive down the insurance rate, while benefiting the younger and wealthier.
That’s not something that will assure skeptical Republicans at all — even if they can get past that 24 million number.