The new CNN/RNC poll released today shows that Donald Trump is leading the GOP primary race nationally by 20 point among “likely” Republican voters. While the support for Ben Carson is decreasing, likely primary voters still are not rallying behind one or two candidates. In fact, Trump still leads the average national polls by 16 points over Rubio and Cruz . And this trend is keeping the Republican establishment in a state of “chaos” wondering what to do if Trump becomes the GOP nominee.
The chart above show Trump at 36% in he new poll. Many GOP pundits had anticipated that once those “likely” Republican primary voters realize both Carson and Trump were not “serious” contenders, they would shop for someone else. But these predictions have not materialized.
However, some pundits – including Charlie Cook from influential Cook Political Report who has promised to eat crow of Trump is the Republican nominee – and Chuck Todd argue that those who support Trump are “likely” Republican voters and independents that will not turnout as strongly as the actual already “declared” Republican voters who have already shifted towards more “serious” candidates like Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and even Jeb Bush.
But there is a national trend showing that Trump has become so strong that now the National Republican Senatorial Committee is Cautiously urging Republicans running for reelection, or in open primary seats, “to adopt many of Trump’s tactics” in case Trump becomes the GOP nominees.
And while nationally, and in the most recent polls, Rubio and Cruz have gained some traction, the national polls show that there is 16 point gap between Trump and Rubio and Cruz, and an even bigger gap between Trump and Bush. As a result, unless the two of candidates gaining support inherit Carson’s supporters if he drops out, and not many of these supporters go to Trump, there may not be enough voters to close the gap between Trump and Rubio/Cruz/Bush (Both Rubio and Cruz are 13.5% while Trump is 30.8% in the nationally average RCP data poll).
In Texas, for example, Ted Cruz home state, the latest poll showed, Cruz is tied with Trump at 27%. And this morning the Texas Tribune reported that Trump now “has opened an Austin office, increased its paid staff and recruited point people in every congressional district, plus about 50 of the biggest counties.” So unless Trump drops out the race, Trump will be slowing down and taking supporters from Ted Cruz in Texas and among Tea Partiers where delegates are distributed by congressional district.
And this will be the same game in Florida where Trump leads the GOP race over Marco Rubio and Jeb Bush ( See graph). In Florida, National Polls have Donald Trump leading 32% over Marco Rubio with 17% and Jeb Bush with only 10%. And unlike Texas, Florida is winner-take-all state.
Alex Gonzalez is a political Analyst and Political Director for Latinos Ready To Vote. comments to firstname.lastname@example.org