The new University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll released this week provides clues about how Latinos will vote in this primary on Super Tuesday and maybe in the general election as well in November.
The full poll was done with a sample of 1200 likely voters, which had a 22% of respondents that were Hispanic (270 respondents). You can read more analysis on this poll by Ross Ramsey from Texas Tribune. The charts I made are entirely about the 270 Hispanics that were surveyed for the poll. While 270 is a small sample of voters, previous polls with same numbers also show similar trends among Hispanics. Thus, you can see where party affiliation is among Hispanics in Texas.
Ted Cruz leads with 33% among likely Hispanic voters in Texas followed by Donald Trump with 26%, and Marco Rubio with 16%. This trend is similar to the main poll showing Cruz leading with 37% followed by Trump with 29%.
On the Democrat side, Hillary Clinton leads among Hispanics in Texas with 59% to 36% for Bernie Sanders. Clinton is also expected to win in most southern states on Super Tuesday and maybe solidify her path for the democrat nomination.
Among those likely Hispanic voters in Texas, 27% said they will be voting in the Republican primary while 55% of the respondents said they will be voting in the Democrat primary. Conversely, 55% of white likely voters will vote in the Republain primary and only 25% of white will be voting in the Democrat primary.
If 27% of those surveyed said they will vote in the Republican primary, party favorability shows party bias when Latinos grade both parties. For example, 31% of Hispanics have very unfavorable and 22% somewhat view of the Republican Party. That is a combined 53% of Latinos that have unfavorable view of the GOP while the combined favorable and somewhat favorable for the GOP is only 16% with 22% having no opinion about the Republican Party. Conversely, the combined unfavorable views for the Democrat party is only 26% among Hispanics.
Just like with party favorability, the approval/disapproval for Gov. Abbott, Lt. Gov. Patrick and Ted Cruz show the same party bias as with party favorabilty. The poll shows Republican Gov. Greg Abbott is the statewide GOP elected official with highest approval and with the lowest disapproval among Hispanics in Texas; Ted Cruz has the largest disapproval from all GOP statewide elected officials.
Both, favorability for the GOP and approval for statewide elected officials, as well with 27% of Latinos who said they will vote in the GOP primary, may indicate the the party is stuck with 30-35% of the Latino vote in Texas for now.
Read more polls: Washington Post-Univision News national survey of Hispanic voters
Alex Gonzalez is a political Analyst and Political Director for Latinos Ready To Vote. Comments to firstname.lastname@example.org or @