MTP: GOP Registration Advantage May Be Hype
We decided to take a close look at five battleground states with significant Hispanic populations: North Carolina, Florida, Colorado, Arizona and Nevada. Since the beginning of this year, Republicans have seen bigger registration increases in two states, Florida and North Carolina, while Democrats have seen greater voter registration increases in three, advantages in Colorado, Nevada and Arizona. And we know the unusual GOP nominating fight and enthusiasm for Trump did increase Republican registration in all of these states. So how do you explain the increased Democratic registration? Well, let’s look at Hispanics.
In these five states, there are 18 countries where the Hispanic population is over 100,000. In 14 of the 18, registration grew at a higher rate than the state as a whole. And in 15 of these 18 counties, the registration advantage went to the Democrats. Now this was all significant because in these growing counties, newly registered voters are more likely to be brand new voters to the process, not just to the Democratic Party.
Meaning more new voters in November for Clinton. And as David Wasserman over at FiveThirtyEight pointed out this week, the Republican registration gains in states like North Carolina and Florida are often formally registered Democrats, who have already been voting Republican in the general election for years, many of them will switch party registration to vote in the primaries for the first time. That doesn’t necessarily translate into new Republican votes in November – just a whole new Republican Primary electorate. All right, when we come back, what voters have to say about the tone and tenor of this year’s campaign. Here’s a hint, it’s not pretty.